Movers
Prediction market movers: Nov 12, 2026
The biggest move: 65%+ in “Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?” went from 91% to <1% on Polymarket.
We tracked 529 open markets on Polymarket and Kalshi at 06:20 UTC. Below: the largest 24-hour probability changes among markets with meaningful trading (at least $20,000 traded in 24 hours on Polymarket or $5,000 on Kalshi), then the most traded markets in each category. Intraday contracts and single games are excluded.
Biggest 24-hour moves
| Market | Now | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?65%+ · Polymarket | <1% | −91 |
| How to Rob a Bank · Rotten Tomatoes scoreAbove 45 · Kalshi | 8% | −66 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...? OddsDecember 31, 2026 · Polymarket | 76% | +60 |
| US gas prices this week (On Nov 16, 2026)Above 3.8000 · Kalshi | 44% | −25 |
| Ebenezer · Rotten Tomatoes scoreAbove 35 · Kalshi | 72% | +17 |
| Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026? (On Nov 30, 2026)Above 3.70 · Kalshi | 17% | −15 |
| Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?December 31 · Polymarket | 30% | −14 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$2.0T · Polymarket | 30% | +14 |
| CPI in November (In Nov 2026)Above 0.0% · Kalshi | 31% | −13 |
| Who will Trump speak to by November 30?Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Polymarket | 56% | −12 |
| Jensen Huang divorce by...?March 31, 2027 · Polymarket | 31% | +12 |
| OpenAI market share this week (OpenAI market share - Nov 9, 2026)Above 19.4% · Kalshi | 14% | −12 |
Most traded: Politics
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? (In 2028)Leading: Jon Ossoff · Kalshi | 19% | $1.7M |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee (In 2028)Leading: Jon Ossoff · Kalshi | 25% | $1.5M |
| Next French Presidential ElectionLeading: Marine Le Pen · Polymarket | 46% | $1.4M |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee (In 2028)Leading: J.D. Vance · Kalshi | 36% | $1.1M |
| Who will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee? OddsLeading: Jon Ossoff · Polymarket | 27% | $1M |
Most traded: Sports
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Who will win the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions? OddsLeading: Jackson Koivun · Kalshi | 6% | $6.3M |
| Thunder vs. Trail BlazersLeading: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 · Polymarket | 99.5% | $4.1M |
| Warriors vs. RocketsLeading: Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5 · Polymarket | 86% | $3.2M |
| Spurs vs. BullsLeading: Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 · Polymarket | 50% | $3.1M |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group ALeading: O/U 2.5 Games · Polymarket | 100% | $3.1M |
Most traded: Crypto
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?Leading: ↓ 72,000 · Polymarket | 48% | $360K |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? OddsLeading: ↓ 70,000 · Polymarket | 66% | $304K |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026: OddsLeading: 70,000 to 74,999.99 · Kalshi | 21% | $214K |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in November? OddsLeading: ↓ 72,500 · Polymarket | 80% | $194K |
| What price will Ethereum hit November 9-15?Leading: ↑ 2,100 · Polymarket | 61% | $190K |
Most traded: Economy & Fed
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...? OddsLeading: December 31, 2027 · Polymarket | 86% | $13.9M |
| Fed Decision in December? OddsLeading: 25 bps increase · Polymarket | 86% | $1.4M |
| Fed decision in December 2026: Will the Fed cut 25bps? OddsLeading: Hike 25bps · Kalshi | 86% | $818K |
| Fed Decision in January?Leading: 25 bps increase · Polymarket | 54% | $670K |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market CapLeading: $1.25–$1.5T · Polymarket | 37% | $659K |
Most traded: Tech & AI
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Best AI at the end of 2026? OddsLeading: Gemini · Kalshi | 69% | $187K |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? OddsLeading: Google · Polymarket | 80% | $150K |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? OddsLeading: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Kalshi | 16% | $61.8K |
| Best AI this month (On Nov 30, 2026)Leading: Gemini · Kalshi | 80% | $50.5K |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?Leading: December 31 · Polymarket | 99.2% | $49.6K |
Most traded: Culture
| Market | Leading | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| How to Rob a Bank · Rotten Tomatoes scoreLeading: Above 25 · Kalshi | 99% | $242K |
| Ebenezer · Rotten Tomatoes scoreLeading: Above 20 · Kalshi | 99% | $202K |
| Oscar Best Picture 2027: Who will win? OddsLeading: The Odyssey · Kalshi | 57% | $156K |
| Who will be Time's Person of the Year for 2026? OddsLeading: Zohran Mamdani · Kalshi | 24% | $140K |
| Highest grossing movie in 2026? OddsLeading: Spider-Man: Brand New Day · Polymarket | 92% | $105K |
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.