Tech & AI · Kalshi · Closes Jan 20, 2029
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 06:20 UTC, traders on Kalshi put Before Jan 20, 2029 at 16%, little changed over 24 hours. $61.8K traded in the last 24 hours; $34.2M in total.
- Before Jan 20, 2029 16%
- Before Jan 1, 2028 12%
- Before Jan 1, 2027 2%
- Before Dec 1, 2026 1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 16% | ±0 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 12% | −1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2% | ±0 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 1% | ±0 |
About this market
This Kalshi market asks whether the U.S. government will officially confirm that aliens exist. It resolves Yes if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a federal agency makes a clear and unambiguous public statement that life or technology from beyond Earth is real, within the cutoff set in the market rules. Speculation, hints or vague acknowledgments of unexplained phenomena are not the same as a definitive statement. The outcome labels represent different deadline windows, so the timing of any announcement matters. Developments that could move the market include congressional hearings, the declassification of government records, official reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, public remarks by senior officials, and whistleblower claims. Readers should check the official market rules for the exact resolution terms.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 06:20 UTC), Kalshi traders priced Before Jan 20, 2029 at 16%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market close?
The market closes on 2029-01-20. The outcomes cover several earlier deadline windows within that period.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves Yes if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a federal agency definitively states that life or technology from beyond Earth exists, within the cutoff given in the rules.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.